Creating a unique game strategy for sports betting
Client
A bettor looking to profit in the long run
Result
Average bankroll growth of +27% over six months
Region
Canada
Delivered
February 2024
Sometimes it seems that basic analysis of teams and odds is enough for successful betting, but the reality turns out to be more complicated. Bettor, seeking to ensure a constant increase in the bank, needs a special system, which is not reduced to simple guesswork. We had to look for a comprehensive approach that takes into account statistics, motivation of teams and skewed lines at bookmakers. The result was a model that allows to identify “overrated” odds and make more meaningful bets.
Challenge: Develop a model for analyzing ratios
The main challenge was to weed out emotional decisions and focus on the numbers. It was necessary to understand why bookmakers set specific odds for certain matches and how to find overvalues. It was necessary to take into account not only the teams’ performance history, but also underlying factors like injuries and the draw system.
Solution: Using advanced value betting algorithms
In order to get an objective assessment, a set of algorithms was implemented that compared actual statistics and betting lines. A bet was placed only on the events where the value – positive mathematical “preponderance” – was traced. The general dynamics of bookmaker quotes was taken into account and changes were tracked in real time. This method eliminates guesswork, relying on dry facts and probabilities.
Result: Average bankroll growth +27% for six months
After six months, it was evident that the system had lived up to expectations. The bank balance was growing more evenly, and the number of sharp “drawdowns” had decreased. Final calculations showed a 27 percent increase over previous methods. This is not an instant sensation, but a gradual progression based on a combination of statistics, common sense and the rejection of emotional decisions.
